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Following the ‘success’ of yesterday’s Tier Four first legs, I thought it only right to update with Tier Three today – these are the playoffs I know best – from the fact Brentford were inserted into them in 1995 even though they were 2nd, to the fact that there’s been some huge points gaps when Huddersfield failed to be promoted in 2011. Anyway, we’ll follow a similar pattern to yesterday, and start with a first leg table.


There’s a definite difference to yesterdays and one word leaps out – ‘Draws’; 52% of the games have been drawn, including a huge 19 of the 27 between top and bottom placed teams.


There has, as a result of these draws, been a lot more 0-0s – see below – though this seems to represent a holding result – with only seven of the eleven ‘superior’ teams eventually prevailing; a goalless game not the disaster it has represented in League Two, then.


The spirit of this tenseness does affect the amount of goals – only 13 of the 54 games have seen more than two – leaning more than ever to the idea of ‘you can’t win it in the first leg, but you can lose it’.

There’s another trend here towards the ‘better’ team that might not bode too well for Peterborough; the big points gaps tend to favour the better teams in this division in a way that they didn’t in League Two. There may be a tipping point at a twelve point gap, but there’s certainly something to suggest that if a team has been way better than you in the regular season, they probably will be in the playoff phase, too.


With all this ‘We’re learning nothing’ in mind, there’s only one place to go – the ‘qualification after scoring/conceding’ graphs I finished with yesterday.

First scoring


Then conceding.


We’re learning nothing. Expect the following, then from the first legs.

Not many goals.

At least one draw

Peterborough to surprise somebody